We were honored to host the Chief Economist and Managing Director of CIBC World Markets Inc, Avery Shenfeld as our key note speaker. Avery has been with CIBC since 1993 and is widely recognized as one of Canada’s leading economists for his perceptive analysis and insight on economic developments and their implications for financial markets. Avery’s speech provided our audience with some key takeaways:
Canadian real GDP grows 1.3% in 2016. Growth titled away from oil producing regions. Hoping for 2%+ in 2017 as energy cap-ex levels off.
Household debt not as scary as it looks; jobs, not debt levels, are the key to banking sector credit performance.
US Fed hikes twice in 2016. Bank of Canada on hold if so.
Long rate rally is overdone, but Canadian yields stickier
Ottawa fiscal stimulus a better option than zero interest rate. $30 billion federal deficit at a minimum.
Need to keep C$ cheap to drive exports. But we’ve seen the big gains from holding US$s. Hotels see gradual recovery.
Canadian commercial real estate helped by low yields, but vacancies an issue in energy provinces.
The event was sold out as we hosted over 60 attendees from Life companies, Banks, Lenders, Credit Unions and Trust companies with 30 firms represented! We look forward to seeing you all at our annual golf tournament in Q2 2016!
Watch highlights from Avery's speech here.